Booooks 9
Happy president's day, Inflation and Illinois
In the Meantime
We are back on our regular Tuesday 8:30 Schedule!
It has been a relatively busy week. I submitted the stupid paper on Sinnott-Armstron (ask me if you really want to know). I am back on the methane track, which is nice I guess. N. and I watched the Menu last week and it’s okay… Like not great, but like an upper bound of okay cinema.
Instead of your weekly meme:
President’s day
So yesterday was an American holiday, that celebrates presidents. This is great because on such a day POTUS visited Kyiv! That historic heroism should never be forgotten. The importance of that visit goes without saying obviously, but it just fits well in the entire picture of Joe Biden and his presidency. From disastrous beginnings like the exit from Afghanistan or early post-pandemic days, his administration managed to deliver greaexcellentustrial policy (a podcast about it) and solid diplomacy, at least on the European front. Despite these great works, his ratings are not too rosy
Maybe there is a change on the horizon, as the polls presented are quite old.
On the News
Tuesday was valinflation day in the US. Wednesday was CPI day in Poland. The verdict for now: TEAM OKAY!
For those who got weird texts from me on Wednesday morning, I owe an apology. (If you didn’t and think that you should let me know!) Team okay is a phrase used by Kyla Scanlon in her tweet here:
I am sad for her, so if you want to do a cool thing you can check her substack here: kyla.substack.com
Optimism over Despair
That was not the point of that section, though. Inflation came in Poland and it is not looking bad! Though probably the twitter comments tell you otherwise. The key takeaway is that it could’ve been much worse! The YoY dynamic went slightly (Xpp) up. The MoM SOARED 2.4pp. But here is the thing - it always does. Almost every year in January inflation accelerates:
I can see little theoretical reason for that to happen, but whatever. So how do we know it could’ve been better? I believe (and so do philosophers of science like Jennifer Jhun) that economists are terrible at forecasting stuff. Research supposedly shows that models we use every day are no better than a coin toss. M. almost cried when I told him. That research was rebuffed, thankfully. Anyhow, some economists did not get the memo, probably because they work for banks and earn loads on knowing the future. But they were mistaken. The Trading Economics consensus of polish forecasters had the numbers as high as 17.6%, and some analysts argued it will go even higher - ING foresaw 18.1% YoY. In response to that data Polish stock exchange’s main index gained, and so did the zloty against the euro and the pound.
The initial optimism was then stalled by the European Court of Justice. Yes, that’s right! So in the 00s and 10s, Polish banks were giving out loans denominated in foreign currencies, most controversially in CHF. But they knowingly put some parts into the agreements that were against the best interests of their clients, abusing the protections these people were entitled to. Justice from the ECJ indicated that the ruling in a case regarding one of these agreements will likely not only nullify the loans but will likely prohibit banks from suing their former clients to receive any payments surpassing the loan payment. That should not stop the clients, who feel they paid unlawful fees from suing banks. The index showing the performance of the banking stocks fell rapidly:
Some Polish liberals decried the Court, whose rulings they normally seek to be enforced when it comes to the judiciary. Rule of law is supposed to be a key institution ensuring the freedom of markets, but some free-marketeers seem to not understand it.
Dual Mandate
But inflation is not everything that matters. There are other things, among them: unemployment. The data in that area looks way less optimistic. The fears of a recession are catching up, especially after the GDP growth slowed down in Q4 2022, an contraction. More worrying data came in on Monday:
It doesn’t look good, maybe Poland will enter a recession in the second quarter, or maybe it won’t. Maybe inflation will rise, or maybe it won’t. I wouldn’t know. I am an economist after all. Go toss a coin!
On the Shelf
This is a markets newsletter now!
Not really, thankfully. Suppose you read that far, thanks. Let’s talk Sufjan Stevens now! I have been listening to Chicago since December, every day, at least once. If you didn’t yet here you go:
I must’ve listened to Sufjan Stevens in the second grade of high school. (I exaggerated later that it was in middle school.) The first song I heard was Casimir Pulaski Day. The song tells of a victim of childhood cancer, who will never experience the joys of youth. The protagonist is a girl’s friend, who tries to stop the sickness with prayers and later with adolescent love.
Tuesday night at the Bible study
We lift our hands and pray over your body
But nothing ever happens
I remember at Michael's house
In the living room when you kissed my neck
And I almost touched your blouse
The central motive is not sickness, but the great divide between Christian trust in benevolence and the existence of suffering. In six minutes, we get to experience first love, all the plans children make and finally the death on the holiday, an early spring day. As if it was a Christian coming-of-age movie, the protagonist cries in the church, conflicted when he sees Jesus’s face in the stained glass window and the Lord comes down to console him.
All the glory that the Lord has made
And the complications when I see His face
In the morning in the window
All the glory when He took our place
But He took my shoulders and He shook my face
And He takes and He takes and He takes
The great narrative, enclosed in a microworld, created for that story; blank characters, make it easier to experience their feelings and finally the weirdly quirky American spirit, which is probably much more evident in Jacksonville.
All that makes Sufjan’s storytelling similar to that of Booker Prize winner George Saunders. His most acclaimed collection of short stories Tenth of December opens with another coming-of-age story about adolescent love (Victory Lap). It is probably too simple to be notable. A winter scene of boyish bravery is almost a sermon. A didactic tool, not the next-great-American-novella. Saunders’s strength however is the immersive ride that he invites you to. The intriguing language devices, undisturbed stream of consciousness blending with dialogue and things the character hears make it difficult to skim-read. You are either in or out. The narrative being short does not mean you should not devote more time to read it. The remaining stories remain on the same reflective note. Spiderhead was recently adapted for the screen and was not great. But if you happen to have watched it already, the story will redeem itself if you read it!
I know, that merely a week ago I bashed other American authors for writing patriotic fairytales… But Saunders is not like other boys. His patriotism is naive and that makes it cute.
All in all, it is worthwhile to give both Sufjan Stevens and George Saunders a chance over the next month! If you do please let me know what you think!
Next up
That’s all for today. This has been your weekly books newsletter, make sure you check back on Tuesday for my latest fresh rambling. I will be in Leamington next week if you want to say hi!